Shell corporate - reported results analysis

Shell reported solid, if unspectacular Q4 results. Earnings were down 39% on Q3 2024, and down 50% on the same period last year, coming in below consensus estimates. Lower prices, margins and a relatively weak trading contribution impacted across Shell’s segments. Shell announced a 4% dividend increase for Q4 2024, and committed to repurchasing another US$3.5 billion of shares by Q1 2025 results. That takes total shareholder distributions for 2024 to US$23 billion, equivalent to 41% of reported CFFO for the year. Shell is set to update strategy and guidance at its March Capital Markets Day, and leadership wasn’t giving much away at the Q4 results call. The broad message was that, while progress over the past two years affords the company “more range to do other things”, leadership remains focussed on discipline, consistency and delivery. The market seemed to like it, with Shell shares up 2.6% on the day (vs BP +1.2%).