Strategy update: Repsol's Strategic Update (2024 to 2027) Report

Insight 15 March 2024

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

Repsol’s Strategic Update was packed with new targets and detailed insight. The company is staying the course with the strategy presented in the previous five-year plan. The central message was the prioritisation of predictable shareholder distributions over the next four years, supported by growing cash flow and earnings. The plan hit the mark with investors. Repsol’s share price jumped 7% in the week after the call, outperforming Eni and TotalEnergies (both flat). We analyse the highlights and implications for Repsol's Upstream, Downstream and Low Carbon businesses.

Executive Summary
Six strategic pillars and a new financial framework
Preparing for an IPO of Repsol Upstream
An upbeat outlook for low-carbon fuels
Reducing capital at risk with the renewable power playbook
Linking the value chain through the Customer business

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Wood Mackenzie’s forecast for Repsol’s operating cash flow*

The potential to drive portfolio improvement through selling low-margin, emissions-intensive assets
EV/EBITDA multiples versus Enterprise Value for US-listed companies
Wood Mackenzie’s projection of Repsol’s Downstream operating cash flow and refining net cash margins*
Wood Mackenzie’s projection of Repsol’s NPV growth in wind/solar discounting from 2023, 2025 and 2030*