Surviving the cycle: E&P financial health and the impact of bankruptcies – Q1 2016 update
Much has changed in US E&P bankruptcy terms since our initial note in mid-April 2016. Total US E&P debt impacted by bankruptcy has more than trebled to US$52 billion and output from companies in Chapter 11 has increased to 1 million boe/d (from US$16 billion and 250,000 boe/d two months ago). The bulk of the carnage could be behind us if oil prices stabilise at US$50/bbl or higher. There will be more filings in 2016, but most of those (particularly those of scale) are already in process. Ironically, companies which escape bankruptcy may actually face the greatest challenge – de-leveraging and growing the hard way. It could take years to right-size some balance sheets.