Insight

The new reality for Central Asian gas

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Report summary

In 2014, more Central Asian gas was delivered to China than to Gazprom for the first time. With Gazprom cutting its purchases, the dependence on the Chinese market could already be of concern. Slower Chinese demand growth is compounding this anxiety. Moreover, in the current low oil price, supplies are struggling to compete with LNG in coastal China. Central Asian gas production will grow over the next decade, but regional governments are under pressure to find alternative monetisation options.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    The new reality for Central Asian gas

    PDF 307.44 KB

Table of contents

  • Gazprom cuts Central Asia’s most reliable export revenues
  • China is the key export market, but near-term growth is under threat
  • Spot LNG more attractive than China’s piped imports at US$60/bbl...
  • while oil price fall is now working through to LNG contracts with lagged indexation
  • Reduced Gazprom purchases hit Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan state revenues
    • Turkmenistan
    • Uzbekistan
  • Alternatives? Domestic monetisation easier than export diversification

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Images

  • Central Asian gas production: 2005-2025
  • Central Asian gas production: 2005-2025, by market
  • China gas demand and growth rate (2011-2019)
  • 2015 delivered cost comparison at US$60/bbl Brent (Shanghai, US$/mmbtu)
  • Piped gas and LNG price competitiveness (Shanghai-delivered): 2014–2015
  • Existing and new LNG contracts to China: 2015-2019

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