The next decade of OPEC+ oil growth Report

Insight 28 November 2022

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Report summary

In an uncertain investment environment, and with many IOCs strategically constrained, there is a sense of growing reliance on OPEC+ to deliver oil supply growth over the longer term. Each member faces distinct challenges in meeting, maintaining, or growing supply. To varying degrees, sanctions, a lack of investment, infrastructure limitations, political or financial headwinds and fundamental resource limitations will temper growth outcomes. The reality is that only two OPEC+ countries have a clear path towards achieving their stated longer-term growth goals. Even then, achieving the targets in the expected time-frame could be a stretch.

Saudi Arabia – expanding oil capacity to 13 million b/d by 2027
Russia – Ukraine invasion undermines oil growth plans
Iraq – growth momentum has stalled
United Arab Emirates – oil capacity target of 5 million b/d by 2027 is ambitious
Kuwait – achieving 3.5 million b/d will be a struggle
Iran – stuck in sanctions limbo
Mexico – an uphill task just to reverse production decline
Kazakhstan – remains highly reliant on megaprojects
Angola – just treading water
Nigeria – enduring the worst upstream crisis since 2016