Insight
Upside and downside risks facing the UK North Sea
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A well-documented period of extreme fiscal unpredictability in the UK North Sea since 2022 has curtailed investment, reduced production and shaken up the corporate landscape. But has the industry passed rock bottom? Amid continuing political, geopolitical, fiscal and regulatory challenges, we identify upside and downside risks facing the sector. What would trigger a renaissance in the UK North Sea, and what would further hold it back?
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Upside scenario: £7 billion more investment and 740 million boe more reserves
- Downside scenario: uncompromising regulation derails investment
- The case for early EPL replacement if windfall prices end in 2027
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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UKCS production and investment scenariosUpside scenario: quicker investment by agile companies delivers higher returns
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UK consolidation: top 20 UKCS producers in 2024Top 20 UKCS producers in 2026Upside scenario: additional greenfield project opportunities over and above base caseFID to first production lead time of UKCS projects since 2005Production additions show slow ramp up from UKCS projects since 2005Upside scenario: more than 60 additional infill wells could be drilled over the next five yearsUpside scenario: production and investmentDownside scenario: production and investment
- 2 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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