Name: Vostok Oil: Rosneft’s very big bet on very big oil
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 205529
Price: 1350 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 22 July 2025

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Report summary

Since late 2020, Rosneft has made limited progress on Russia’s Vostok Oil megaproject – currently the biggest onshore oil development in the world. The project will open up the Taimyr Peninsula, one of the last major untapped oil provinces. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the project has been targeted by US sanctions. Despite the headwinds, Vostok Oil will shape the future of Rosneft and Russia’s oil industry. It's a giant project – from its tens of billions of barrels of resources to its tens of billions of dollars of capex. In 10-15 years time, Vostok Oil could be producing 2% of the world’s oil and 15% of Russia’s supply. Its high-quality blend could become a new premium Russian benchmark. Oil will be exported year-round via the Northern Sea Route. We evaluate Vostok Oil from all angles.

Executive summary
- A massive upstream project
- Vostok Oil: project description
- Investment programme totals almost US$100 billion
- Fiscal incentives are critical
- High-quality crude attracts a price premium
- Resilience to long-term low oil prices
- Reserve upgrades could significantly increase value
- What are the risks?
- 2 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Vostok Oil overviewVostok Oil productionVostok Oil, base case NPV10 breakdown

Vostok Oil blocksIndicative production profile for blocks in exploration stageVostok Oil 2P oil reserves (million barrels)Vostok Oil possible reserves by field (million barrels)Vostok Oil contingent and prospective resources (million barrels)Vostok Oil gas overviewRosneft Gydan and Vostok Oil gas resources (tcf)