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What could domestic gas do for EU energy security?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Imports meet 85% of EU gas demand, and the LNG dependency that replaced Russian supply leaves the bloc exposed. We modelled low, mid and high domestic production cases to 2050 to see how the balance shifts. With no new investment, production falls to 2 bcm by 2050. On the current outlook it holds near 40 bcm to 2038 but covers at most 17% of demand. With supportive policy it reaches 77 bcm by 2042 and 38%. Close to 1,000 bcm separates the cases, displacing over 600 LNG cargoes a year. Exploration delivers 70% of that gap, concentrated in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean, where the volumes are still undiscovered.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- The EU's energy security challenge
- The policy picture
- The corporate landscape
- The case for more domestic gas
- Three scenarios for EU domestic gas supply
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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EU gas supply and demand rangesEurope gas balanceEU fiscal attractiveness vs fiscal stability
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Traffic light scorecard for EU member upstream investment climateEU gas resources by country and company portfolio alignmentEU gas production (2026) by country and companyGas and LNG new project breakeven cost stack delivered to EuropeScope 1&2 emissions from gas supply sources in the Netherlands (2025)EU member states ranked by domestic gas upsideEU country gas demand versus domestic production (2026)EU domestic gas supply low-case scenarioEU domestic gas supply mid-case scenario
- 2 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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