Is deepwater back after nearly three years in the wilderness? A flurry of FIDs and commercial discoveries appears to be reviving a sector starved of new investment during the downturn. But has it really turned the corner? Deepwater project costs are over 20% lower than mid-2014, but for many this is still not enough. Far greater volumes of US tight oil breakeven at a lower price if compared on a like-for-like basis. However, we see considerable scope for further cost cuts in deepwater, while cost inflation in tight oil has returned with a vengeance. The playing field is about to get a lot more level, and this will strengthen the deepwater value proposition.