In the final instalment of our global trends to 2035 series, we analyse shifting supply and demand dynamics that will foster the growth of international trade.
The coming years will reshape world gas trade, with new liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies coming online as demand growth in some major markets weakens.
Between now and 2035, the US will become an important LNG supplier and, by 2020, 60% of US LNG will find a market in Europe.
However, while demand is there, some US producers will be unable to recover the cash cost of shipping to Europe, as oversupply forces gas prices to stay low. It is likely some US LNG will be shut-in on a seasonal basis until the mid-2020s.
That said, volumes delivered to Europe will continue to increase to 2025 before falling once more as competition from other new LNG suppliers and destinations causes US volumes to be diverted elsewhere.