Ethylene and its connections to the oil market

Trump tariffs: MEG impact US-China trade tensions: US exports of MEG to China are expected to drop due to the high 125% tariffs (as of 12 April) imposed by the Chinese government on all US imports. US producers are expected to redirect exports to alternative markets, like Turkey, Latin America, and the rest of Asia. Impact on the US MEG market: The 25% tariff on Canadian imports, contingent on the USMCA agreement, could result in a reduction of Canadian MEG flows to the US. This may lead to increased domestic consumption and potentially higher US MEG prices. US competitiveness: Despite potential trade disruptions, the US remains globally cost-competitive in ethylene and MEG production. The US is expected to maintain its position as a net MEG exporter. Market uncertainties: Long-term effects on global MEG trade flows remain uncertain. Key factors to monitor include further retaliatory tariffs, global economic conditions, and domestic market dynamics in key countries.