How fast will EV market share grow?
Revolution or evolution?
The answer is complex. Numerous factors are set to stagnate transport fuel demand in the next decade or so, and EVs are only a small part of the story in the immediate future: we expect 2.4 million to be sold by 2020.
But with the advent of mid-priced electric cars such as the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 entering the consumer market, demand for EVs could grow faster than anticipated. And as battery pack costs are cut in half or more over the coming decade to $100/Kwh, they will become truly cost competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
Post-2025, we expect EVs to start making a palpable dent in the transport sector globally, with Europe leading adoption. We expect global sales to more than triple from 4% in 2025 to 12.5% in 2035, with varying regional deviations. Europe should expect 30% of its car sales to be electric in less than two decades, with the US trailing at 20% and China's entry-level market at 15%.
By this time, EVs will displace approximately 6% of global gasoline demand.