Editorial

Europe power markets, Chevron-Anadarko acquisition, global LNG shipping

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What's the long-term outlook for Europe power markets?

The patience of national policy makers has been stretched too far by low emissions costs and the continued competitiveness of coal in European power supply – where a fuel cannot be priced out of a market, it can be ruled out by policy.

With marked reductions in power supply from coal and nuclear, we expect to see support for gas generation. The falling costs of wind and solar are facilitating major changes in subsidy and support regimes. While competitive market arrangements continue delivering value, subsidy-free opportunities are also becoming a reality – although choice of market, site and technology remain critical to project success. 

This report presents our long-term outlook for European power markets to 2040, including a full summary of our regional view and an outline of developments in individual key markets.

Why buy this report?

  • Understand what will influence European power markets to 2040
  • Gain a comprehensive view of supply, demand and pricing across regional markets
  • Get access to our forecasts on which energy sources will dominate in key regions: how quickly will coal and nuclear be phased out in favour of gas and renewables?
  • The report comes with datasets and charts analysing supply and demand factors across 5 countries

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The big three becomes the big four

Chevron's cash-and-stock acquisition of Anadarko is the biggest upstream deal since Shell and BG in 2015. Get the latest analysis from our team of US upstream researchers. 

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What's the long-term global outlook for iron ore?

Uncertainty over the scale and duration of Brazilian production cuts in the aftermath of the Brumadinho tailings dam failure has changed the entire psyche of the iron ore market. Our revised forecast shows a global seaborne market that is closely balanced, with a tendency towards under-supply. No one wants to risk being short while the market is so finely balanced and vulnerable to further supply side shocks. We have therefore raised our CY 2019 price forecast to $82/t CFR, 22% above our previous forecast. We have made a smaller 15% upgrade to our price forecast for 2020: now $75/t CFR. No change to our long term assumption that a price of at least $65/t CFR (real 2019 terms) will be required to balance the market.

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