2024 outlook

Energy fiscal policy: time to take stock?

A tense calm could fall on the global fiscal landscape in 2024, following the rollercoaster of recent years. Much will depend on geopolitics and supply/demand fundamentals – but it could be a year for taking stock and assessing conflicting ambitions. Read our predictions in Global upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2024.

In the full report:

  1. Will ongoing fiscal reviews be completed?
  2. Licensing rounds: how will terms and bids evolve?
  3. Will governments finally introduce upstream transition sticks and carrots?
  4. What role will energy policy play in major elections?

Energy fiscal policy will continue to be a major talking point in 2024, though the turmoil generated by recent windfall prices has stabilised for now. This relative calm will enable policymakers to take stock and develop terms for the preferred future of their upstream sector. But that path is far from clear in most countries.

So, what are the key debates and themes to watch in the year ahead? How will they shift the landscape? Our Fiscal Service team set out our predictions in Global upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2023. Read on for a brief introduction – and fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the full report.

Conflicting ambitions continue to influence upstream fiscal systems

The factors that influence fiscal policy are complex, and often competing. Fiscal policy changes will reflect each government's desire to attract upstream investment, maximise revenue from existing production and encourage operators to invest in green energy projects, such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Which of these ambitions dominates policy will differ between jurisdictions.

The debates will play out in four key areas:

  1. Existing fiscal reviews: which will be resolved, which will rumble on?
  2. Licensing rounds: how will terms and bids evolve in the current environment?
  3. Energy transition: how much do governments want the upstream sector to decarbonise?
  4. General elections: which political parties will use upstream fiscal policy to attract votes?

Developing unambiguous and sustainable fiscal policies will be crucial

Upstream capital remains difficult to attract. Investors are seeking stable fiscal and regulatory platforms on which to base capital allocation decisions. But the message from many governments is ambiguous.

Developing clear, sustainable fiscal policies for the upstream sector will be challenging, but necessary.

Live fiscal discussions rolled over from 2023 – and some could drag on

Live fiscal discussions rolled over into 2024 in countries such as Australia, Colombia, Ghana and Romania. The outcomes will be influenced by changing political will and how the prevailing macro environment unfolds.

What outcomes do we expect in these countries – and others – in 2024? We explore this in more detail in the full report. Plus, will new licence terms shift? Are upstream transition sticks and carrots on the horizon in 2024? And what role could energy policy play in 2024 general and presidential elections?

Read our predictions in Global upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2024.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.


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