2024 outlook

Electric vehicle & battery supply chain: 5 things to look for in 2024

Following a disappointing year, electric vehicles (EVs) could be front and centre of global geopolitics in 2024. How will that change the road ahead? Read our predictions for 2024.

In the full report:

  • US elections: the stick for electrification under threat
  • Foreign automakers continue to be outmanoeuvred in China
  • Chinese EV onslaught in Europe: a moment of truth
  • Cell makers expand chemistry choices
  • A decisive year for low-cost batteries

2 minute read

EV sales have been in the fast lane in recent years. Many expected the market to keep up its pace and grow from strength to strength in 2023. However, faltering sales and raw material supply expansions produced a year characterised by tumbling spot prices.

Cell producers entered 2024 to a market almost unrecognisable from that of a year ago. But while spot prices for key battery materials plunged, regulation updates could reignite EV demand.

With EVs front and centre of global geopolitics, we expect 2024 to be a defining year for transport electrification. In this report from our Electric Vehicle & Battery Supply Chain Service, we pick out the five things we’ll watching closely in the year ahead. Fill in the form to access the full report, and read on for a short introduction.

EV policies in the spotlight for the US elections

Policies around EVs will be a major campaign point for the leading candidates as the 2024 US presidential election race reaches its final stretch.

While Democrats will tout the benefits of new job growth in the ‘battery belt’ and reduced pollution, we expect Republican candidates to continue to counter with claims of reduced purchasing freedom for US individuals and indirect benefits for rival Chinese entities.

Read the full report for a closer look at the policy divide and potential impacts.

EV brands jostle for position in key markets

China has moved headfirst towards EVs as part of its aim to become a high-end goods manufacturing powerhouse. The market dominance of foreign automakers like VW and Toyota have rapidly eroded in China as a result.

Meanwhile, we see 2024 as an important year to gauge the growth potential of the European EV market as the European Commission completes its anti-subsidy probe on China-origin EVs. Countervailing duties on Chinese imports are undoubtedly in the cards.

What does all of this mean for Chinese and European EV brands in key markets? And could South Korean cell producers emerge as an unexpected winner? Read more on this in the full report.

Cellmakers to expand chemistry options

There appears to have been a surplus of over 200 GWh of lithium-ion batteries in China alone last year. Automakers are likely sitting on secured cell supply for EV sales that failed to materialise.

Storing batteries is an expensive business, so automakers may have a more cautious appetite for purchasing cells in 2024. Along with reducing battery raw materials prices, 2024 should see highly competitive battery prices, leading some to diversify their cell chemistries.

China is poised to spearhead the development of more affordable cells, exploring sodium-ion as the next low-cost tech. Large-scale commercialisation of sodium-ion cells is already underway, with BYD initiating construction at its inaugural 30 GWh factory earlier this month.

For more on this, plus a look at why 2024 will be a decisive year for low-cost batteries, read the full report.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.