Metals and mining outlook 2026: half-time report

Back in January we predicted that an increasingly fragmented world would define the trajectory of the metals and mining sector in 2026. As we pass the halfway point, that expectation is certainly playing out — if not exactly as expected.

In our metals and mining half-time report for 2026, Wood Mackenzie’s expert analysts take stock of industry trends in H1 and explain their implications for the rest of 2026 and beyond. Can strong supply growth continue? Will weakening demand result in growing surpluses? And what do the trends towards electrification and regionalisation mean for metals?

Complete the form to download your free copy of the report, and read on for a quick overview of some key themes.

1. Supply growth continues for key metals, but for how long?

At the start of the year, we used the term ‘growth with guardrails’ to define our expectation of ongoing but more cautious metals supply growth in 2026. In the event, supply build out for most metals has been stronger than we expected — even in copper, where surpluses are coming back in to balance the market. The exception is aluminium, where damage to facilities in the Middle East has weakened overall supply. The question remains, however, whether long-term investments in new projects can continue in an environment beset with short-term uncertainty. Get our view in the full report.

2. The metals supply chain has proven surprisingly resilient, but gaps may emerge

Overall, the repercussions of the Middle East conflict for global markets have been surprisingly muted so far. The impact on metals and mining has mainly been limited to commodities and products concentrated in the region. Aluminium supply has been impacted, albeit not as seriously as initially expected, while about 32% of global direct reduced iron (DRI) production were lost to the market. A halving of global sulphur supplies (compounded by China’s sulphuric acid export ban) has affected copper and nickel production; in contrast, lithium remains largely unscathed by the conflict. However, a renewed conflict and ongoing trade restrictions are slowly starting to put upward pressure on inflation and threaten global growth. Read the full report to get our view on what that could mean for metals demand.

3. The strategic shift towards regionalisation is accelerating

Electrification became a hot topic in Q2 2026 as disruption to oil and gas supplies saw cost concerns take a back seat to the question of energy availability. Meanwhile, the trend towards economic regionalisation, originally driven by a desire to bring back jobs and ensure decarbonisation, has changed gear. As geopolitical volatility rises, greater self-sufficiency in energy, raw materials and production is increasingly seen as a sovereignty issue. Read the full report to understand the potential impacts of these trends on the metals and mining sector.

Now fill out the form to download your free copy of the report, which digs deeper into these and other topics affecting the industry.