Russian Federation upstream: 4 things to look for in 2026

Russia's oil and gas sector faces a year of gradual adjustment in 2026. The upstream sector continues to navigate Western sanctions, with modest oil and gas production recovery expected following recent declines.

The sector's trajectory depends largely on evolving geopolitical developments. The EU will continue to reduce dependence on Russian piped gas and LNG. The outcome of peace talks remains the key uncertainty for Russia’s upstream sector outlook.

We highlight the four key themes to watch in 2026, including:

• Crude oil production: what risks are there to Russia's crude oil production outlook?
• Pipeline gas and LNG: what challenges does Russia face in growing exports?
• EU/US sanctions: what trajectory might they take?
• Import substitution: how much progress can Russia make?

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