US data centre developers prioritise existing project pipelines as new pipeline capacity growth slows in Q1 2026

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis of Q1 2026 data shows that established US data centre developers continue to shift their focus to existing data-centre pipelines in the face of an increasingly challenging development and regulatory environment. 

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36 GW of disclosed data centre capacity was added to the US pipeline in Q1 2026, down 19% from additions in Q4 2025  

Texas leads in terms of planned capacity development, followed by Ohio. Cumulative planned capacity in Texas now totals over 96 GW, with 6.4 GW, or 14%, added on the quarter in Q1 2026. Massive sites are planned in states including Utah, New Mexico and West Virginia due to land availability, but only a small fraction of those are under active development. Cumulative US disclosed data-centre capacity now totals 331 GW, of which 43% is under active development.   

Fifty-three percent of projects are past the permitting phases, but that only corresponds to 32% of total capacity. Projects entering construction phases so far in 2026 are less energy dense than those in the disclosed and permitting phases. 

Developers with a small number of large projects dominate the leaderboard. While more mature developers have a geographically diverse pipeline, new entrants focused on gas-supply and land access are targeting states such as Texas and Utah. 

Is US data centre capacity growing quickly enough to meet demand? 

In addition to project-level pipeline data, Wood Mackenzie actively tracks disclosures of large load commitments made by top US utilities. Capacity with signed construction or electricity supply agreements with these utilities now totals 195 GW, 26% of 2025 US peak load. Capacity in advanced discussion phases grew from 37 GW in Q1 2026 to 107 GW, signalling maturing project pipelines and the completion of early-stage study processes. Uncommitted, longer-term capacity increased significantly in Q1 2026, driven by utilities in ERCOT. 

Sixty-nine percent of construction and committed capacity is in PJM or ERCOT. Over a third of the utility commitment pipeline in PJM is defined as high confidence, while 86% of ERCOT commitments are speculative or in early-stage study phases.  

PJM is most at risk of large-load pipelines exceeding the reliable generation queue. Accredited generation capacity in the queue exceeds committed and under-construction load in ERCOT and MISO; however, near-term reliable supply additions fail to fully account for high confidence load additions in PJM.  

How are onsite power and behind-the-meter generation changing data centre development? 

A growing number of pipeline projects have disclosed around-the-meter (ATM) generation strategies, spanning various development stages. Most disclosed ATM capacity is in Texas, driven by strong gas supply, faster permitting and a robust renewables market. 

Sites involving onsite gas and battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasing in gigawatt (GW) terms. Gas now accounts for 40% of deployments and 48% of total site capacity, while renewables and storage account for 41% of deployments and 38% of capacity.  

Why is data centre investment becoming more concentrated? 

Disclosed capex associated with specific projects broke US$1 trillion in Q1 2026. Total tracked capex skews towards large, speculative projects. Six percent of all projects currently account for 42% of total capex.  

Per-MW cost declines continued into Q1 2026 in a departure from H2 2025 highs. Developers of smaller projects cite higher per-unit costs than larger developers. Per-square-foot data-centre costs declined too in Q1 2026 following a spike in 2025. Campus square footage continues to decline, but average building square footage is rising. 

How could regulation affect future US data centre demand? 

The regulatory environment for data-centre development is increasingly complex and regionally diverse. Interruptible service options are being deployed, forcing companies to choose between speed-to-power and firm power. Policymakers tend to view firm service as an unnecessary friction to interconnection.  

Fast-track capacity interconnection frameworks seek to bring new generation online quickly ahead of a supply crunch. It remains to be seen whether policy developments help or hinder demand growth, however, as policymakers seek to balance the often-competing priorities of affordability, speed to power and decarbonisation. 

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