Australia east coast gas market outlook

Nicholas Browne

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20 September 2018

Australia east coast gas market outlook

Report summary

The pace and scale of transformation in the east Australian gas market over the past five years has put gas – both its availability and its pricing – firmly on the country’s political agenda. This report offers a comprehensive overview of the dynamics shaping the gas market, including the drivers of domestic gas demand, how gas flows will change and price dynamics. Based on our supply forecast, from 2028 there is not enough gas to meet both LNG contracts and demand. More gas will need to be developed and commercialised, or LNG imported, to meet the needs of both the domestic market and to fulfil LNG contracts.

This report looks in detail at:


  • Project level supply for all existing, under construction and potential projects in Australia (except WA & offshore NT).
  • Cost of supply. Breakeven analysis by project for all existing under construction, probable supply projects in Australia (except WA & offshore NT).
  • Breakeven analysis for coal seam gas supply in Surat, Bowen, & Narrabri.
  • Breakeven analysis broken down by supply for Surat & Bowen by acreage quality. Narrabri will not be broken down by acreage quality in this report.
  • Supply available to East Coast broken down by domestic, volumes contracted from QLD projects and potential further diversion from QLD projects


  • Base case demand AEMO
  • Low and High AEMO demand cases from latest GSOO.
  • Drivers of scenarios and implications on supply, flows and prices.


  • Forecast domestic gas pricing across regional hubs: QLD, NWS, VIC & SA. Based on LNG netback driven pricing.
  • Analysis of relevant price benchmarks & forecast for LNG spot and term prices.
  • Analysis of factors that will influence end user pricing, incorporating different cost structures and relevant LNG price benchmarks
  • Pricing forecast based on WM proprietary linear optimisation model, that factors in seasonality, demand and gas flows. (for additional fee access to linear model can be provided)
  • Assessment of viability of LNG imports

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