North America propylene short-term outlook March 2019

Propylene prices decreased for another consecutive month as spot PGP (polymer grade propylene) fell to about 32.5 cts/lb on average month to date and RGP (refinery grade propylene) decreased to 20.0 cts/lb. EIA weekly inventory numbers began signaling the crest of inventories as stocks have now decreased for three weeks straight after reaching 15 year highs. High inventories combined with strong supply is keeping prices depressed. Strengthening crude oil has reduced the amount of LPG into the cracker feedslates in our forecast, but byproduct propylene production will come intermittently through 2019. PGP buyers for PP appear to have stepped out of the market and have watched propylene inventories soar in order to spur lower prices. Demand into PP seems to have resumed as monomer inventory levels begin to draw down as the polymer market restocks using cheap monomer feedstock.