Slowing economic growth and its decoupling from energy demand have considerably weakened coal demand. Thermal coal demand in 2014 contracted for the first time since 1998 while metallurgical coal demand remained flat. Chinese miners are battling for survival in the current low price environment; nearly 80% of thermal coal mines and 35% of metallurgical coal mines are cash negative. Absent underlying demand improvement or supply rationalization, a recovery in coal prices looks a distant dream.
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China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 1.22 MB 40 Pages, 8 Tables, 35 Figures
02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls XLS - 378.00 KB
03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls XLS - 1.98 MB
04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls XLS - 269.50 KB
05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 1.96 MB
Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.
Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.
From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.
Government policies are not solving China's oversupplied market
Environmental policies: targets emerge, but detail is sparse
Power reform in early stages, but could be a further drag on coal long term
Changes from the previous outlook
Prices and politics usher in deflation, with recovery around 2020
Domestic thermal coal price forecast
Domestic hard coking coal price forecast
Seaborne thermal coal price forecast
Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
Thermal coal demand - regional analysis
A weak property market pushes demand lower
Environment and market forces pressure metallurgical coal demand
There will be consecutive new demand for seaborne metallurgical coal from two projects
Metallurgical coal demand in China expected to peak in 2023
Metallurgical coal demand – regional analysis
Thermal coal supply
Metallurgic coal supply
Weak coal demand will lower rail capacity utilization
Risks and uncertainties
Coal vs environment: majority of risks point to downside for coal demand
Carbon emission reduction plans may evolve faster than in our base case
Renewables penetration and UHV transmission expansion in power markets
Coal quality as a problem and reshaping the future in an ultra-low emissions world
The trade-off between fears of nuclear plant development and increased coal consumption is hard to assess
Government intervention, and the pace and scale of market reforms
China may take drastic steps to insulate its domestic industry from coal imports
Traditional relationships between economic growth and power generation may be changing: the rate at which emerging economies decouple economic growth from electricity generation may be different than we forecast
Continual cost deflation: advances in equipment utilisation, extended diesel downside, further productivity gains, technological improvement
In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:
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Commodity market report | Jul 2015
China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2015
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