Commodity market report

China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

Slowing economic growth and its decoupling from energy demand have considerably weakened coal demand. Thermal coal demand in 2014 contracted for the first time since 1998 while metallurgical coal demand remained flat. Chinese miners are battling for survival in the current low price environment; nearly 80% of thermal coal mines and 35% of metallurgical coal mines are cash negative. Absent underlying demand improvement or supply rationalization a recovery in coal prices looks a distant dream.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls

    XLS 378.00 KB

  • Document

    03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls

    XLS 1.98 MB

  • Document

    04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls

    XLS 269.50 KB

  • Document

    05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls

    XLS 1.96 MB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 1.22 MB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 3.80 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 124.62 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 107.75 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 137.21 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 73.08 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 56.31 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 69.63 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 123.63 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 104.48 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 120.71 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 181.75 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 127.62 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 146.34 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 111.57 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 129.11 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 126.65 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 501.06 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 120.68 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 116.85 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 84.26 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 74.55 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 84.64 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 76.49 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 85.23 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 3.60 MB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 658.91 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 810.95 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Trade
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 43 images and tables including:

Images

  • Thermal supply demand balance, Mt
  • Metallurgical supply demand balance, Mt
  • Risks assessment, H1 2015
  • Thermal coal demand - power sector (Mt)
  • Thermal coal demand - non-power sector (Mt)
  • Domestic thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal imports (Mt)
  • Domestic spot price vs long-term contract (RMB/t)
  • Market discount to FOB QHD (after energy adjustment)
  • Domestic coal prices, RMB/t - history (nominal) and forecast (real 2015)
  • Installed capacity by fuel type (GW)
  • Power generation by fuel type (TWh)
  • Total thermal coal demand (Mt)
  • Thermal coal demand - non-power sector (Mt)
  • Thermal coal production by province, Mt
  • Thermal coal seaborne imports by country and rank, Mt
  • Thermal coal landborne imports by country, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal production by province , Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by country, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by rank, Mt
  • Power transmission import by region and power source (TWh)
  • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
  • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • Domestic thermal coal margin curve (FOB Newcastle, US$61/t)
  • Domestic metallurgical coal margin curve (FOB Queensland US$106/t)
  • Thermal coal demand in coastal China and seaborne imports (Mt)
  • Thermal coal demand by region (Mt)
  • Power coal demand by region (Mt)
  • Non-power coal demand by region (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Transport cost estimates to move coal from Ordos to QHD for private miners (RMB/t)
  • Forecast of railed coal to import regions by groups (Mt)

Tables

  • Economic indicators
  • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (US$/t, Real 2015)
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (US$/t, Real 2015)
  • Forecast loading port capacity in north China (Mt)
  • Supply-side initiatives: coal quality standards for domestic consumption
  • China coal supply demand balance (Mt)
  • China's five regions
  • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2014-2020 (Mt)

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