Commodity market report
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8 Pages

China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

Report summary

Entering August, the record-high temperatures felt in July gradually dropped, leading us to reduce our estimation of thermal coal demand. Persistently strong restocking by crude steel producers underpinned metallurgical coal demand.
Although the government has allowed new supply to enter the market, we are yet to see a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections and coal management tickets are mainly to blame. The Ministry of Environmental Protection also updated the '2+26 policy' and we expect it will impact 65 Mtpa of coal demand.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market PDF - 394.82 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 2.22 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Supply uncertainty prevents significant fall in thermal coal prices
    • Supply shortage amid strong demand boosts metallurgical coal prices
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal demand rises and falls with temperature
    • Worse air quality in H1 2017 results in stricter regulations for 2+26 cities
    • High steel output and early restocking strengthen metallurgical coal demand
  • Supply
    • Effects of additional capacity yet to materialise
    • Shenhua and Guodian merger finalised

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
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