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China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

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07 September 2017

China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

Report summary

Entering August, the record-high temperatures felt in July gradually dropped, leading us to reduce our estimation of thermal coal demand. Persistently strong restocking by crude steel producers underpinned metallurgical coal demand. Although the government has allowed new supply to enter the market, we are yet to see a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections and coal management tickets are mainly to blame. The Ministry of Environmental Protection also updated the '2+26 policy' and we expect it will impact 65 Mtpa of coal demand.  

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Supply uncertainty prevents significant fall in thermal coal prices
    • Supply shortage amid strong demand boosts metallurgical coal prices
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Thermal coal demand rises and falls with temperature
    • Worse air quality in H1 2017 results in stricter regulations for 2+26 cities
    • High steel output and early restocking strengthen metallurgical coal demand
    • Effects of additional capacity yet to materialise
    • Shenhua and Guodian merger finalised

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

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  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.22 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

    PDF 394.82 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook August 2017: regulated domestic output and declining imports tighten market

    ZIP 1.78 MB

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