China coal short-term outlook March 2024

Thermal power generation, 90% of which is coal-fired, increased 9.7% in the first two months of 2024, and coal output decreased 4.2%. However, the benchmark price of Qinhuangdao 5500 slumped to RMB835/tonne at the end of March from RMB930/tonne one month earlier. Will the bearish market sentiment continue in April? Similarly, but only heavier, the Chinese domestic coking coal prices also dropped by RMB400-550/tonne in March, despite several mine accidents triggering stricter safety checks and causing temporary and regional supply reductions. Both the steel mills and the coking plants were trapped deeply in negative margins due to sluggish demand for steel. Entering April, more construction activities are supposed to get commissioned, but will this translate to coal demand? Will coal prices get some support and rebound? Read our report to find the answers.