Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook February 2019: another mine accident prompts price rally
Report summary
The delay in mine restarts following the Chinese new year weighed heavily on China's coal market in February. The price for Qinhuangdao 5500 increased RMB25/t in the month as only a few mines in Shaanxi province resumed operation. We believe the Qinhuangdao 5500 price will further increase to RMB640/t as supply will remain tight until mid-March. The price will then start to fall as mine operations gradually get back into full swing. Metallurgical coal prices also increased in February due to the festive downtime as well as new restrictions on imports. We believe prices will keep rising as steel demand recovers and construction activity picks up.
Table of contents
- Post-holiday delay in mine restarts sparks price rally
- Tight supply supports strong metallurgical coal prices
- Rain lifts power coal demand but dampens construction sector’s appetite
- Higher-than-usual metallurgical coal demand amid healthy steel margins
- Mines slow to resume post-holiday operation
- China approves 50.4 Mt of new capacity
- Geopolitical progress looms over seaborne import market
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast, US$/t
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port, Mt
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port, Mt
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply, Mt
- Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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