China’s thermal coal prices were held steady by opposing forces in June – low inventories at northern loading ports pushed prices up while weak demand in the coastal region pulled them back down. However, the struggle was broken by a coal mine accident in Shanxi province on 20 June, leading to a supply-driven increase taking the QHD 5,500 price to RMB 616/t. We expect the price to keep increasing to RMB 630/t in July – although this time driven by demand. We also expect coal generation will be up 5.5% in July year-on-year. Prices for metallurgical coal types dropped by RMB 30-80/t in June as weak restocking sentiment restrained demand. We think the price will keep falling in July as Tangshan has started to restrict steel plant operations to avoid air pollution. We expect the price for Liulin #4 to drop by RMB40/t to RMB1,610/t in July.