Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook June 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Safety was the key factor for all industries in China in June as the Communist Party centenary on 1 July approached. However, six serious accidents led to a total of 50 deaths in sectors including coal mining, iron ore mining and gas exploration sectors. In response, many provinces suspended higher-risk mine operations. The curtailed supply resulted in prices soaring, with QHD 5,500 reaching around RMB1,000/t. The story was slightly different in the metallurgical coal market. Coking coal prices had been on a downward path as the government stabilised rebar prices and there were expectations of a decline in steel demand. However, the mine accidents and suspended imports from Mongolia due to a Covid outbreak there significantly propelled prices. We expect prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal will fall in July. Please read the report for more details.
Table of contents
- QHD price returns to RMB1,000/t
- Supply shortage reverses price weakness
- Coal generation growth rate in coastal region is double national average
- Steel demand slides later than expected but will deepen
- Domestic supply constrained until mid-July
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
- Recent accidents
What's included
This report contains:
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