China coal short-term outlook June 2021

Safety was the key factor for all industries in China in June as the Communist Party centenary on 1 July approached. However, six serious accidents led to a total of 50 deaths in sectors including coal mining, iron ore mining and gas exploration sectors. In response, many provinces suspended higher-risk mine operations. The curtailed supply resulted in prices soaring, with QHD 5,500 reaching around RMB1,000/t. The story was slightly different in the metallurgical coal market. Coking coal prices had been on a downward path as the government stabilised rebar prices and there were expectations of a decline in steel demand. However, the mine accidents and suspended imports from Mongolia due to a Covid outbreak there significantly propelled prices. We expect prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal will fall in July. Please read the report for more details.