Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook June 2021

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

02 July 2021

China coal short-term outlook June 2021

Report summary

Safety was the key factor for all industries in China in June as the Communist Party centenary on 1 July approached. However, six serious accidents led to a total of 50 deaths in sectors including coal mining, iron ore mining and gas exploration sectors. In response, many provinces suspended higher-risk mine operations. The curtailed supply resulted in prices soaring, with QHD 5,500 reaching around RMB1,000/t. The story was slightly different in the metallurgical coal market. Coking coal prices had been on a downward path as the government stabilised rebar prices and there were expectations of a decline in steel demand. However, the mine accidents and suspended imports from Mongolia due to a Covid outbreak there significantly propelled prices. We expect prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal will fall in July. Please read the report for more details.

Table of contents

  • QHD price returns to RMB1,000/t
  • Supply shortage reverses price weakness
  • Coal generation growth rate in coastal region is double national average
  • Steel demand slides later than expected but will deepen
  • Domestic supply constrained until mid-July

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
  • Recent accidents

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook data - June 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 425.27 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook June 2021

    PDF 1.05 MB