Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook March 2019: continual price pressure in Q2
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
With slow recovery in domestic supply, both thermal and metallurgical coal prices lost their upward momentum in March. Qinhuangdao 5500 rose by only RMB1/t in the month, while Liulin#4 droppedRMB30/t. We expect prices to remain under pressure in April. Qinhuangdao 5500 will fall to RMB595/t and Liulin#4 will decline further to RMB1,690/t by the end of the month. Read this month's short-term outlook to understand the factors forcing coal prices downwards.
Table of contents
- 3% VAT cut creates room for prices to fall in April
- Metallurgical coal prices lose steam on softening demand
- Two Sessions adds support to coal demand in weaker economy
- Winter restrictions and slim steel margins suppressed demand
- Net increment in compliant production capacity will support domestic output
- Domestic supply to recover from accident-triggered decline
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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