Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook March 2022

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01 April 2022

China coal short-term outlook March 2022

Report summary

The government has introduced measures to ease the market tightness, including signing 100% of gencos’ demand with long-term contracts (excluding import volumes) and checking contract fulfilment rates, along with plans to increase domestic supply to guarantee daily output of 12.6 Mt. However, these approaches haven’t had an immediate effect and the QHD price lingered around RMB1,500/t in March. The resurgence in Covid cases nationwide interrupted the rapid recovery in steel production and coking coal demand. The domestic coking price declined accordingly after hitting RMB3,410/t in mid-March. Lockdowns have dragged down steel demand, and road transport disruption has broken the coal supply chain. We expect the conditions to improve by late April and once demand re-awakens, prices will also start to rise again. Please read the report to find more.

Table of contents

  • QHD price keeps soaring
  • Price surging reversed by new wave of pandemic
  • Pandemic resurgence and earlier flooding curtail thermal coal demand
  • Steel destocking hit and coal demand questionable
  • Domestic production at full speed
  • China’s thermal coal imports halved as Indonesia bans exports in February

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook data - Mar 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 397.98 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook March 2022

    PDF 1.07 MB