Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook May 2020: demand back on track
Report summary
Macroeconomic indicators indicate China’s economy was back on track in April. Industrial production and power generation returned to positive growth territory. The declines in fixed-asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods significantly narrowed from a month earlier. Coal demand has shown recovery as well, although with different strengths for thermal and metallurgical coal. The strong return in demand while supply was constrained helped the Qinhuangdao price rebound in May, increasing RMB79/t in the month. We expect thermal coal prices can be sustained as gencos restock. Meanwhile, the metallurgical coal side is less encouraging. Although metallurgical coal demand will benefit from strong steel demand, high inventory at mines will undercut price strength. Read our report for more details.
Table of contents
- Thermal coal price bottomed out
- Coke margins recover while coking coal prices remain weak
- Thermal coal demand returns strongly in April and May
- Strong steel demand helps metallurgical coal demand
- Domestic output constrained in May
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Key economic indicators (year-on-year change rate)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook March 2024
Continued slump in China’s property sector is crippling demand and raw material prices
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook February 2024
market hoping for material outcomes from the Two Sessions, will there be any?
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
North America gas short-term outlook: Henry Hub generates support while Waha falls into an abyss
Can prices rebound to $3/mmbtu by the start of winter?
$2,000
