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China coal short-term outlook May 2022

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03 June 2022

China coal short-term outlook May 2022

Report summary

The QHD price fluctuated around RMB1,200/t in May. Weak demand and the government’s attitude towards stabilising coal price pressured the spot market. However, the low inventory and coming summer peak demand season prevented the price from falling. We expect the fundamentals to result in the QHD rising in June. The grim steel demand picture in early May exhausted the patience of the steelmakers who had suffered slim margins for months. The strong pressure pushed the prices of coke and coking coal down by RMB600-800/t. We expect the situation to ease in June, as the pandemic measures have led to positive results and Shanghai is expected to reopen.

Table of contents

  • Key events
  • Shanghai’s lockdown dampened China’s thermal coal demand
  • Concerns about falling demand partly offset by improving Covid-19 conditions in late May
  • Domestic: policy to ensure supply resulted in high production records
  • Domestic: Ordos plans to increase mine output
  • Import: landborne imports from Mongolia to increase rapidly in June
  • Declining domestic output underpinned the QHD price
  • Price weakness to recover when a substantial demand increase is in place

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Raw coal production - NBS
  • Coal mines in Ordos with increased output potential, Mt
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook May 2022

    PDF 1.09 MB

  • Document

    China Coal Short Term Outlook May 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 403.16 KB