China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions Report

Commodity Market Report 03 December 2019

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Report summary

While import restrictions and mining accidents are two key events to look to in November, both thermal and metallurgical prices remained under pressure. However, we expect different stories for thermal and metallurgical prices in December. We forecast the Qinhuangdao 5500 price to slide to RMB535/t towards the end of December, while coking coal prices will recover slightly by RMB30-50/t. Read this month’s short-term outlook to understand the different price movements.

Import restrictions and mine accidents fail to reverse the gloomy thermal coal market
An earlier Chinese New Year will pressure prices in the second half of December
Coking coal price remains low, despite mine suspensions
Power coal demand remained strong with declining hydro
Steel output and price see slight rebounds in final two months
Mining accidents trigger a new round of safety inspections
Output growth to decline in the last two months of the year