Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions
Report summary
While import restrictions and mining accidents are two key events to look to in November, both thermal and metallurgical prices remained under pressure. However, we expect different stories for thermal and metallurgical prices in December. We forecast the Qinhuangdao 5500 price to slide to RMB535/t towards the end of December, while coking coal prices will recover slightly by RMB30-50/t. Read this month’s short-term outlook to understand the different price movements.
Table of contents
- Import restrictions and mine accidents fail to reverse the gloomy thermal coal market
- An earlier Chinese New Year will pressure prices in the second half of December
- Coking coal price remains low, despite mine suspensions
- Power coal demand remained strong with declining hydro
- Steel output and price see slight rebounds in final two months
- Mining accidents trigger a new round of safety inspections
- Output growth to decline in the last two months of the year
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
29 November 2019
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2019 - Prices struggle to regain foothold after fall
Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2019 - Prices struggle to regain foothold after fall
Supply costs protect prices under weight of low import demand
$2,00001 November 2019
China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment
Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook October 2019: prices tumble on weak market sentiment
Sagging economy and influx of imports deal heavy blow to thermal and metallurgical markets
$2,00028 November 2019
Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2019: the return of Chinese import restrictions
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2019: the return of Chinese import restrictions
Coal import restrictions continued to spread across various ports in China over the last month.
$2,000
Trusted by leading organisations
