Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions

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03 December 2019

China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions

Report summary

While import restrictions and mining accidents are two key events to look to in November, both thermal and metallurgical prices remained under pressure. However, we expect different stories for thermal and metallurgical prices in December. We forecast the Qinhuangdao 5500 price to slide to RMB535/t towards the end of December, while coking coal prices will recover slightly by RMB30-50/t. Read this month’s short-term outlook to understand the different price movements.

Table of contents

  • Import restrictions and mine accidents fail to reverse the gloomy thermal coal market
  • An earlier Chinese New Year will pressure prices in the second half of December
  • Coking coal price remains low, despite mine suspensions
  • Power coal demand remained strong with declining hydro
  • Steel output and price see slight rebounds in final two months
  • Mining accidents trigger a new round of safety inspections
  • Output growth to decline in the last two months of the year

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms-china-short-term-market-report-data.xlsx

    XLSX 399.35 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions

    ZIP 1.15 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook November 2019: prices pressured despite supply-side disruptions

    ZIP 1.19 MB

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