Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook November 2021
Report summary
Compared with the busy October when various measures were implemented to stabilise coal prices, the market was quiet in November with the QHD price stable at around RMB1,100/t. Over the last month the National Development and Reform Commission has announced some daily coal output and genco inventory data points to demonstrate the increasing levels of supply. Both coking coal and coke prices experienced a decline of more than RMB1,500/t due to weak demand downstream. However, we expect steel production will increase in December as production cut targets are met by the end of November. This will eventually improve metallurgical coal demand and slow the price decline.
Table of contents
- Flood of supply to drive price down in winter
- Price collapse due to massive margin loss in downstream sectors
- Colder winter expected despite a potentially warmer December
- Room for steel production increase will ensure coking coal demand and price
- Domestic production effectively increased as wished
- Return of Australian coal can’t reverse falling imports
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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