Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook September 2021
Report summary
China’s thermal coal market is displaying unusual behaviour. The benchmark QHD 5,500 price has leapt to RMB1,500/t – much higher than the previous record of RMB1,100/t. What makes the situation extraordinary is that previous records have been set during peak demand periods, but this new high comes in the autumn shoulder demand period. Adding to the market bizarreness is more than 10 provinces announcing power supply cuts, something not seen in the past two decades. The metallurgical market is similar. Prices have surged to new highs while steel plants are busy cutting output. To find out what’s behind the record prices and what will happen in the near term, read our report.
Table of contents
- QHD price reaches new high, but hasn’t peaked yet
- Price surge coming to a temporary halt but will remain high in October
- Many provinces announced power supply cuts to reduce energy consumption and intensity
- Steel production cut yet to prevail and space for high coking coal prices still exists
- Domestic: output improved in August
- Domestic: limited growth in September
- Imports: strong demand for seaborne thermal coal will persist for rest of 2021
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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