China coal short-term outlook September 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 09 October 2023

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Report summary

Mine accidents curtailed China’s domestic supply in the second half of the year. It was the primary driver behind the QHD price jumping by RMB150/t to RMB1,000/t in September. However, tight domestic supply resulted in over 30 Mt of seaborne imports in August, the highest since January 2021. We expect the influx of imports will be the main impetus for the QHD price stabilising in October. Supply issues have been the most significant support to the high coal price since July, although the real shortage may be overrated. Robust steel production did ensure coal demand but couldn’t consistently push the price up since merely one-third of the steel mills made a profit. How will the situation evolve?