Insight
China’s strong domestic coal supply poses greater threat than import ban to seaborne prices
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Since 25 October, Guangzhou and Fuzhou customs authorities have reportedly stopped clearing imports, as coal volumes through ports in the two customs regions have exceeded last year’s levels. The move suggests China has resumed its restrictions on imports, like the measures imposed at the end of 2018 that went on to cause a slump in seaborne thermal coal prices. On a research trip to Guangzhou at the end of October, we sought answers to the following: • Will China further restrict imports in the last two months of 2019? • Will this cause imports to fall in Q4? • Why are traders avoiding the seaborne market? Read this report to learn what we discovered.
Table of contents
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Q4 imports will be higher than last year despite restrictions at some ports
- The government has not been so strict on coal imports so far this year
- Besides, coal imports in most regions in the first nine months of 2019 were lower than last year
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Strong domestic supply poses greater threat than import restrictions to seaborne prices
- Fall in domestic prices unfazed by import ban
- Three fundamental factors will keep prices on a downward trend this winter
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Difference in import volumes between Jan-Aug 2018 and Jan-Aug 2019 by customs region
- Difference in import volumes between Jan-Aug 2018 and Jan-Aug 2019 by customs region
- Coal imports between 2018 and 2019 by month
What's included
This report contains:
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