Commodity Market Report

Coal markets - China short-term outlook - Apr 2021

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01 May 2021

Coal markets - China short-term outlook - Apr 2021

Report summary

Driven by the robust economy in Q1, power and steel have both seen substantial demand. As such, the benchmark QHD thermal coal price neared RMB800/t and the coking coal price gained more than RMB100/t within the month. Environmental inspections in Shanxi province have impacted coking coal and coke output, worsening the supply tightness. Meanwhile, steel mills in Hebei province are still being told to constrain operations, and the broader implementation of such policies is possible. It will take a while to see how bearish this will be for coke demand. Please read our report to find more details.

Table of contents

  • How will the government intervene in the market?
  • Domestic coking coal price reaches three-year high
  • GDP strength bodes well for thermal coal demand
  • China announces peak coal demand in the 2026-2030 period
  • Robust steel production in Q1 raises concerns of possible output cuts
  • Safety concerns limit supply growth

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook data - Apr 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 420.27 KB

  • Document

    Coal markets - China short-term outlook - Apr 2021

    PDF 1.05 MB