Could China become a major seaborne thermal coal exporter again?

Domestic Chinese coal demand is expected to fall rapidly from the late 2020s as the country moves towards its decarbonization goals. On the other hand, new seaborne thermal coal supply project development faces ever-increasing challenges. In this insight, we look at a scenario where the oversupply of coal in the Chinese domestic market and tight supply in the seaborne market incentivise excess Chinese domestic coal to enter the seaborne market. Read this report to find out how this could change the seaborne thermal coal market and what other outcomes are also possible.