Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Challenge for supply as demand grows
Robin Griffin
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Scroll down for a full table of contents, as well as all the charts and data sets you'll receive.
What's changed since our H1 2018 update?
Our view of major price trends has not changed markedly since our last update. However, we have made some changes to reflect differences in our forecast of supply and demand. We still expect prices to fall from their current highs in the medium term; but, we have slowed the decent towards the cost of global supply by one year. This change means that HCC prices will on average stay above US$150/t until 2023. The change reflects our view that supply of premium HCC will take longer to expand and meet the global need than we had previously forecast.
Report summary
Table of contents
- Introduction
- Changes to our forecast
- 2018 – 2020: Fundamentals show little change
- 2020-2023: Price transition
- 2024-2030: Prices flirt with the marginal cost of supply
- 2030-2040: Reserve depletion takes precedence
- PCI and semisoft prices temporarily reverse valuations
- US prices will have a mixed relationship with the Australian LV price
- Long-term demand trends
- India
- China's megatrend of declining steel, coke and coal demand still holds
- Import demand into China supported by coastal shift of mills and emissions reduction drive
- Increasing blast furnace size will entrench lower coke rates and higher CSR
- Near Term
- Downside: Trade dispute and import cap
- Upside: Environmental restrictions on coal mining
- Mid- and long-term
- Downside: China's shrinking metallurgical coal demand
- Downside: Accelerated decarbonisation of the steel sector
- Downside: India's recent successes might not be sustained
- Neutral: India's coking coal supply
- Alternative iron production processes
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- HCC Demand comparison H2 versus H1
- HCC Price forecast comparison
- Hay Point vs Chinese domestic pricing
- HCC Supply by status
- Seaborne HCC incentive price curve
- Supply change 2018 to 2040
- Consolidation in the Indian steel sector
- Long term steel production in China by type
What's included
This report contains:
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