Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook September 2022

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30 September 2022

Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook September 2022

Report summary

September proved to be relatively stable for markets, when compared to an extremely volatile year to date. The Queensland PHCC benchmark FOB price traded in a tight price range of US$25/t. There was some early downward pressure driven by weaker demand from India as it nears the end of its monsoon season. While there was also an abundance of imported Chinese and European coke to assist steel margins. A combination of supply concerns in Canada and Australia, together with more crossover tonnes into a boiling thermal coal market, led to a recovery in met coal prices in the second half of the month.

Table of contents

  • Queensland benchmark price steady for a change
  • Tight domestic Chinese supply supports higher prices
  • Outlook: prices to moderate in October before climbing for the remainder of the year
  • Outlook: Chinese domestic prices to continue bull run in the near-term
  • China: strong seasonal demand supports higher production
  • India: rising coking coal imports, falling met coke imports
  • South Korea: steel production hit by Typhoon Hinnamnor
  • Japan: steel production to scale back in Q4
  • Australia: Queensland royalty hike causes investment pause
  • Australia: majors planning ahead
  • Australia: La Niña official for a third straight year
  • Australia: restarts and new greenfield projects have made relatively slow progress
  • Russia: restrictions ease to free up exports for non-European buyers
  • Canada: export picture complicated
  • China
  • China: shift to net coke importer in Q4 2022
  • India
  • Australia
  • Russia

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • PLV FoB % Change Month on Month
  • CFR China % Change Month on Month
  • Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
  • China BOF and rebar margins
  • China BOF/EAF share of steel production
  • Indian coking coal and met coke prices
  • Average monthly rainfall across Qld met coal mines
  • Chinese monthly metallurgical coke exports by destination (Mt)
  • Indian coking coal and PCI imports
  • Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Metallurgical coal markets - short-term outlook data - September 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 464.62 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook September 2022

    PDF 1.02 MB