Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2020: Import ban stalemate prompts Australian coal exporters to pivot
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Report summary
The duality of the current market is high metallurgical coal spot prices to China and low prices elsewhere, caused by China’s Australian coal ban. Buyers in China sought replacements around the globe, but supply is tight. The resale of some cargoes, destined for Chinese ports, are keeping a lid on FOB Australia prices. On the supply side, many Australian mines are extending their holiday outages on the low pricing structure. In other supply regions, most producers wish they had more coal available to reap the strong China prices for short-term gains.
Table of contents
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Coronavirus update: Month ended December
- Australian cargoes in China remain in port purgatory
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Current state-of-play
- Price relativities reach new divergence level
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Outlook
- How long will the Australian ban last?
- How will pricing dynamics play out
- Discount resale cargoes cast shadow over market
- Domestic coal market remains red hot, pulling up CFR China pricing further
- With growing ex-China demand, FOB Australia prices to marginally recover
- China: strong steel supply supported by ample domestic demand and a return to net exports
- China: steel demand remains strong for first half of 2021 before contractions over second half
- China: domestic coke prices expected to maintain rally, with coke in short supply
- 11 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Infection rate versus hot metal production
- Cost versus spot price (US$)
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
What's included
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