Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2021: Australian HCC prices retreat on razor thin trading
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Prices for spot PLV cargoes steadily declined over March. A dearth of Australian cargo sales plagued the premium HCC market over the month. Without China to rely on, HCC producers in Australia looked to India to shore up the spot trade to no avail. Meanwhile, above average ocean freight rates only added to margin erosion. Despite the drop in CFR China and domestic prices, ex-Australian coal demand in China remains strong however we expect downward risk to overall seaborne coal imports from pressures to lower steel production. Mongolian landborne coal deliveries remain muted but for how long? Outside of China, Indian restocking demand leading up to the monsoon season remains crucial to support premium HCC price levels. Europe and Brazil steel demand remains strong and annual coal contracts are settled but new Covid outbreaks threaten momentum.
Table of contents
- China: lower domestic and CFR prices but plenty of positive signals
- Outlook: FOB Australia index to remain fragile
- China: Tangshan steel cuts and China ban a malevolent force through 2021
- Risks to our forecast
- Australia: Queensland’s met coal throughput to bump up in March
- Australia: Vitrinite set to open a HCC mine in Queensland
- Canada: CST to reopen Canadian mines
- US: exports fall on Australian competition
- US: United Coal increases production at Affinity
- US: Allegiance Coal starts new HV mine in Colorado
- Russia: projects get support – from the top
- February global steel rises over 2020, but northern Europe slows with cold weather
- 5 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Crude steel production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Metallurgical coal energy transition outlook 2024
Carbon emissions in the crosshairs: metallurgical coal in a net zero era
$10,000
Insight
Adjusting to a new metallurgical coal pricing system: Quarterly contract price round-up Q2 2017
The world hasn't ended, but the change is causing consternation for many
$1,100
