Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2019: Solid pricing supported by firm demand

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Chinese demand remains stout with global leading hot metal and steel production in April despite pressure from on-going US-China trade tensions. Pricing supported over US$200/t in a tight band on demand and April supply that endured port and mine restrictions. Australian supply is posed to add additional tonnes in advance of their fiscal year end. Supply additions coupled with a summer slow down in the Chinese construction season will dent near-term pricing under the latter half of 2019. Continued strong demand drives prices up with downside price risk from re-institution of Chinese import quota restrictions and long term currency weakness.

Table of contents

  • Strong pricing expected to temporarily moderate
  • Likely rebound in second half of 2019 hinges on supply and Chinese import policy
  • Chinese prices continued their gains amid strengthening coke prices
  • Transport restrictions are hurting import demand to in-land mills
  • Spot PCI price marginally dented as China looks beyond Australia
  • Removal of Chinese metallurgical coal tariff elicits tepid response
  • Export pace from Queensland slows but rebound expected
  • Australia's Olive Downs coking coal project takes a big step forward
  • Bowen Basin coal customers sign tariff agreements with Aurizon
  • Peabody begins efforts to re-start North Goonyella
  • Limited impact from Chinese mine inspection program
  • Gloucester declines to appeal the Rocky Hill mine decision
  • Australia's Hancock secures controlling interest in Riversdale's Grassy Mountain project
  • Vale's Mozambique operations at Moatize spared by Cyclone Kenneth
  • More US miners confirm new projects
  • China macroeconomics show positive infrastructure spending trends
  • Liquidity crunch bites into Indian steel demand for autos and infrastructure
  • ArcelorMittal trims steel output as European demand weakens
  • Cyclone Fani produces limited to no impact on eastern Indian coal imports
  • China continues steel and hot metal growth supremacy in April global statistics

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Growth in Indian Car Sales
  • Indian Housing Price Index
  • Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Crude steel production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
  • Blast furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2019: Solid pricing supported by firm demand

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