Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2019 - metallurgical coal prices retreat on economic headwinds

Prices for premium low volatile coals retreated for the fifth straight month in 2019, breaching the US$130/t mark. Market sentiment is weak globally while buyers in China continued to import coal despite dwindling import quotas and the US-China trade war dragging on. A market lull will set in as China celebrates Golden Week in the first week of October, highlighted by the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the PRC's founding. Leading up to and during the event, industrial activity and coal trading will be curtailed. From mid October through to December, we expect buying activity to return and with it, a rise in price although risks remain.