Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical short-term outlook January 2024

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Australian PLV HCC prices started to show signs of softness in January amid supply disruption in Australia, caused by cyclone Kirrily and lower BMA PLV production following a fatal accident at Saraji mine. PLV HCC price will largely stay rangebound in the near term as constrained supply counteracts disappointing demand from India and Europe. Sluggish steel demand weighs on India's demand for spot coal. We expect Indian demand to improve to Q2 2024 due to improving construction activity ahead of the general elections in 2024. A Chinese domestic supply shortfall in Q1 2024 will keep CFR China prices elevated at US$315/t and provide a price floor at US$300/t FOB. Read our report to understand: • What will be the impacts of cyclone Kirrily on metallurgical coal supply from Australia? • What driver pushes down the premium hard coking coal prices despite a constrained supply? • What is the outlook for Australian and Russian supply in 2024? • How will prices develop in H1 and 2024?

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