Global thermal coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023

The big question for long-term thermal coal markets is: which is moving at a faster pace, demand-side decarbonization efforts or supply-side? Despite government pledges and investments in renewable energy, coal remains difficult to replace in terms of electricity reliability. As a result, coal generation is expected to continue to grow in Asia in the near-term, particularly in India and Southeast Asia. However, will coal supply be available? Decarbonization efforts on the supply-side seem to be happening at a faster pace. ESG commitments by companies is impacting thermal coal supply in various ways; mainly, access to capital, availability of insurance, & investments in coal projects by diversified miners. Governments of major coal exporting regions have been implementing efforts to limit production and/or emissions from the mining process – with the Australian safeguard mechanism and permitting challenges in Australia, Colombia, and the United States.