Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?

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25 July 2019

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?

Report summary

Thermal coal is caught between the grasp of two contradictory stressors. On the one hand, coal demand growth is driven by economic expansion in the developing world and the subsequent need for inexpensive energy to fuel electrification. On the other, coal demand is moderated by the desire to limit carbon emissions and the ensuing growth of ever-less-expensive renewable energy technology. Trapped in these pincers, total thermal coal demand will improve slightly in the near-term but will start to rapidly slide from 2022 onwards as the transition to gas and renewable energy gathers steam.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Newcastle to China arbitrage
  • Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
  • ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2019)
  • China's domestic FOB price netback to Newcastle benchmark
  • Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
  • Seaborne demand versus supply status (Mt)
  • Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price (Mt, US$/t)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2019)
  • Thermal spot price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2019)
  • Benchmark thermal coal incentive price for probable and possible projects at 15-25% country specific IRR (US$, FOB Newcastle, real 2019)
  • Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
  • Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
  • Global thermal coal demand for power
  • Global thermal coal demand for non-power
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand by region
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand change by region
  • Seaborne export cost curve 2018 (energy adjusted)
  • Seaborne export cost curve 2040 (energy adjusted)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm_cms_thermal_h1_2019_lto_slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.74 MB

  • Document

    cms_price_charts_thermal_trade_long-term_2019_H1_data.xls

    XLS 3.42 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?

    PDF 1000.65 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?

    ZIP 15.10 MB

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