Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?
Report summary
Thermal coal is caught between the grasp of two contradictory stressors. On the one hand, coal demand growth is driven by economic expansion in the developing world and the subsequent need for inexpensive energy to fuel electrification. On the other, coal demand is moderated by the desire to limit carbon emissions and the ensuing growth of ever-less-expensive renewable energy technology. Trapped in these pincers, total thermal coal demand will improve slightly in the near-term but will start to rapidly slide from 2022 onwards as the transition to gas and renewable energy gathers steam.
Table of contents
- Phase 1: Returning to marginal costs (2019 – 2021)
- Phase 2: A mild recovery as probable projects are required (2022 – 2028)
- Phase 3: riskier projects required despite demand pressure (2029 – 2038)
- Phase 4: renewables weigh on prices (2039 – 2040)
- Global thermal coal demand continues to decline from its 2013 peak
-
Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
- Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
- Mining costs likely to decrease
-
Country-level supply review: a decline in Indonesian supply provides upside for Australia and Russia
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Colombia
- USA
- Russia
Tables and charts
This report includes 18 images and tables including:
- Newcastle to China arbitrage
- Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2019)
- China's domestic FOB price netback to Newcastle benchmark
- Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- Seaborne demand versus supply status (Mt)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price (Mt, US$/t)
- Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2019)
- Thermal spot price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2019)
- Benchmark thermal coal incentive price for probable and possible projects at 15-25% country specific IRR (US$, FOB Newcastle, real 2019)
- Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- Global thermal coal demand for power
- Global thermal coal demand for non-power
- Seaborne thermal coal demand by region
- Seaborne thermal coal demand change by region
- Seaborne export cost curve 2018 (energy adjusted)
- Seaborne export cost curve 2040 (energy adjusted)
What's included
This report contains:
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