Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2019: the power switch - is it lights out for coal?
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Report summary
Table of contents
- Phase 1: Returning to marginal costs (2019 – 2021)
- Phase 2: A mild recovery as probable projects are required (2022 – 2028)
- Phase 3: riskier projects required despite demand pressure (2029 – 2038)
- Phase 4: renewables weigh on prices (2039 – 2040)
- Global thermal coal demand continues to decline from its 2013 peak
-
Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
- Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
- Mining costs likely to decrease
-
Country-level supply review: a decline in Indonesian supply provides upside for Australia and Russia
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Colombia
- USA
- Russia
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Newcastle to China arbitrage
- Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2019)
- China's domestic FOB price netback to Newcastle benchmark
- Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- Seaborne demand versus supply status (Mt)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price (Mt, US$/t)
- Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2019)
- Thermal spot price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2019)
- Benchmark thermal coal incentive price for probable and possible projects at 15-25% country specific IRR (US$, FOB Newcastle, real 2019)
- Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2019 US$/t
- 6 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains: