Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2019: Coal's future diminishing under the allure of economic renewables
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Phase 1: Gas price weakness weighs coal prices (2019 – 2020)
- Phase 2: Recovery to distressed marginal costs (2021 – 2025)
- Phase 3: Higher prices required to incentivise projects (2026 – 2033)
- Phase 4: renewables and project approval risks weigh on prices (2034 – 2040)
- Global thermal coal demand may not have peaked yet
-
Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
- Oversupply continues despite record levels of demand
- Mining costs likely to decrease
-
Country-level supply review: a decline in Indonesian supply provides upside for Australia and Russia
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Colombia
- Russia
- USA
Tables and charts
This report includes 21 images and tables including:
- Calculation of Chinese domestic FOB prices netback to Newcastle benchmark (real 2019, US$/t)
- Phase 1 marker coal price forecast (real 2019, US$/t)
- ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2019)
- North Asia coal-gas switching incentives
- Phase II marker coal price forecast (real 2019, US$/t)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle
- Quality adjusted costs vs FOB Newcastle
- Seaborne demand vs supply status
- Seaborne thermal export incentive prices
- Phase III marker coal price forecast (real 2019, US$/t)
- Thermal coal price forecast, FOB
- Thermal coal price forecast, CFR
- Phase IV marker coal price forecast (real 2019, US$/t)
- Global thermal coal demand for power
- Global thermal coal demand for non-power
- Seaborne thermal coal demand by region
- Seaborne thermal coal demand cumulative change by region
- Seaborne export cost curve 2019
- Seaborne export cost curve 2040
- Seaborne thermal coal supply by country
- Change in seaborne thermal exports 2019-2040
What's included
This report contains:
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