Global thermal coal market service - Risks H2 2019

The global thermal coal market has been subjected to extensive volatility over the past decade and we see that continuing. We have attempted to turn the main risks into quantifiable impacts so that we could model the results and present a range of prices. We have identified those risks we think are most likely to impact our base case and arranged them into the low and high cases. Our low case demonstrates that prices may not bottomed out as coal demand destruction - owing to pollution restrictions, renewables generation, and low LNG prices - could continue. On the other side, swift production curtailments by producers, stimulus by governments, and a resolving trade war could return prices quickly to 2018 levels. Our scenarios suggest annual Newcastle prices as low as US$62/tonne and as high as US$83/tonne over the next two years, highlighting the high degree of volatility in the market.