Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2020: China-Australia trade tensions distort the market
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
-
Low case COVID-19 scenarios
- Conditions which could induce lower prices:
- China – peak winter demand and additional quotas offer upside to imports
- India – higher petcoke prices could spur greater thermal coal imports
-
Japan & South Korea – higher LNG prices reduce switching threat to coal
- Japan
- South Korea
- Europe – lockdown restrictions dampen coal gains in October
- Turkey – Taman Port shipments create a challenge for Colombian coal
- Australia – impacts of the ban unfold
- Indonesia – exports may struggle to catch up in Q4
- Colombia – record breaking strike may force parties into arbitration
- Russia – rail capacity risk
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
- Qinhuangdao port stocks
- Indonesia coal production
- COVID-19 low case for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 33% and 5% (US$/t)
What's included
This report contains:
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